ABSTRACT
We analysed 5,484 close contacts of coronavirus disease (COVID-19) cases in Italy, all tested for severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2). Infection fatality ratio was 0.43% (95% confidence interval (CI): 0.21-0.79) for individuals younger than 70 years and 10.5% (95% CI: 8.0-13.6) for older individuals. Risk of death after infection was 62% lower (95% CI: 31-80) in clusters identified after 16 March 2020 and 1.8-fold higher for males (95% CI: 1.03-3.16).
Subject(s)
Contact Tracing/statistics & numerical data , Coronavirus Infections/mortality , Coronavirus , Pandemics/statistics & numerical data , Pneumonia, Viral/mortality , Adolescent , Adult , Age Distribution , Aged , Aged, 80 and over , Betacoronavirus , COVID-19 , Child , Child, Preschool , Coronavirus Infections/diagnosis , Female , Humans , Infant , Infant, Newborn , Italy/epidemiology , Male , Middle Aged , Pneumonia, Viral/diagnosis , Pneumonia, Viral/transmission , Risk Factors , SARS-CoV-2 , Young AdultABSTRACT
Sustained coronavirus disease (COVID-19) transmission is ongoing in Italy, with 7,375 reported cases and 366 deaths by 8 March 2020. We provide a model-based evaluation of patient records from Lombardy, predicting the impact of an uncontrolled epidemic on the healthcare system. It has the potential to cause more than 250,039 (95% credible interval (CrI): 147,717-459,890) cases within 3 weeks, including 37,194 (95% CrI: 22,250-67,632) patients requiring intensive care. Aggressive containment strategies are required.